Why Waiting for the Market to “Soften” Can Backfire

The Data Doesn’t Agree

• JetNet’s latest forecast projects 9,700 business jet deliveries through 2034 and highlights growing optimism in the industry’s long-term scale. That’s not the picture of a softening market—it’s one of rising confidence in long-term demand. (AINonline)
• WingX reports that August 2025 was the busiest August on record, with global bizjet activity at its highest monthly level in years. In addition, Week 37 (8–14 September 2025) marked the largest weekly growth of the year, up 7% from the prior week and 12% from the same week in 2024. In North America, growth was even stronger, with departures up about 15% year-over-year. (WingX Weekly Bulletin August and WingX Weekly Bulletin September
• Jefferies’ September analysis shows business jet inventories held flat, while pricing climbed 4% year-over-year. Even with more than 2,400 aircraft for sale, demand is keeping values strong. Within that, inventories of newer Textron and Embraer jets are trending lower compared to last year—underscoring the tight supply in categories many buyers want most. (AINonline, Sept 17, 2025)

When utilization is at record highs, deliveries are projected to remain strong, and pricing is climbing despite steady inventories, waiting for a buyer’s market can mean waiting indefinitely.

The Real Cost of Waiting

For buyers who sit on the sidelines, “waiting for the dip” often leads to:

• Fewer choices: desirable aircraft sell quickly, often off-market.
• Higher acquisition costs: as Jefferies’ 4% pricing increase shows, waiting often means paying more later.
• Lost opportunity: instead of putting an aircraft to work—saving time, expanding reach, or growing their business—buyers lose months or years of utility.

That potential buyer I mentioned is risking all three. By trying to time the market, he may miss opportunities that will never come back.

What Buyers Who Move Earlier Are Doing Differently

Here’s what clients who act early with a buyer’s representative are gaining:

• Locking in favorable specs and terms before choices disappear.
• Accessing off-market or soon-to-be-listed aircraft.
• Managing trade-ins or fleet transitions to avoid large gaps in availability.
• Tailoring their training and delivery schedules so the new aircraft is ready when they need it—limiting downtime.

The Bottom Line

Aircraft aren’t stocks. They’re tools that create opportunity, save time, and build freedom. With inventories steady, Textron and Embraer supply tightening, pricing up, utilization at records, and deliveries strong, waiting for the market to soften may feel safe—but it’s often the riskiest move of all.